At the beginning of next term the Year 6/7 Maths classes will be starting a unit on Probability. We will use coins, dice, cards, spinners and coloured beads to perform experiments and calculate theoretical probabilities.

Draw a line across your page and mark ‘zero’ (impossible) at the left end and ‘one’ (certain) at the right end. Divide the line into quarters and mark 1/4 as ‘unlikely’, 1/2 as ‘even chance’ and 3/4 as ‘likely’. Give some examples for each category. For example, “The sun rising in the west” is impossible, a probability of zero; “Having a boy or girl baby” is equally likely, a probability of 1/2 or 50%.

“Two-up” is a classic Australian game, played on Anzac day and at casinos, which involves two coins being tossed from a “kip” (a flat piece of wood) into the air. Players bet on the outcome. Are all the possibilities equal? (2 heads, tail and head or 2 tails). Can you construct a spinner with which you would have the same chances of winning as a ‘two up’ game?

The National Library of Virtual Manipulatives has a couple of good tools for teaching and learning about Probability: Virtual Spinner with histogram for graphing results and Virtual Coin tossing.